Geopolitics when you only want to be a cozy little guy
It’s winter in Canada and if you aren’t careful, it will just drag you down. Instead, we keep ourselves busy with winter sports, cozy meals and by lighting candles and keeping the fireplace lit. You have to kick at the darkness, Bruce Cockburn famously crooned, and really, it’s great advice.
Speaking of dangerous times (see what I did there?) the world feels immensely and particularly bonkers right now. It feels like reality has been flipped on its head and that we are living in the darkest timeline: aside from Trump’s threats[1], we are staring down both a federal and provincial election in 2025 and quite frankly it all feels overwhelming.
I, personally, will vote for anyone who bans twitter(sic), Meta and amazon(sic) from the country and who doesn’t act like a total sycophant towards the new US administration. As the current government (hah, what government!? BADDABUMP!) scrambles to give in to Trump’s weird ass demands in the hopes he won’t levy a tariff (ie: a tax on consumers) [2], I have a different perspective:
BRING IT THE FUCK ON.
Look, we are playing two different games right now: we are trying to be nice and diplomatic to come to a mutual agreement and the other side is relying on hot takes and gotchus that pander to their base and it doesn’t actually matter that it is predicated on outright lies. One side is playing chess and the other checkers: sure, the board looks the same but the two games are played very differently.
The reality is that if Canada just gives in and lets the US boss it around, it won’t stop there. In a couple of weeks the goalposts will move again in a never-ending cycle of demands. I say: rip the band aid off and let the chips fall where they may. Why grovel when you can just accept your fate. [3]
You can research all you want about trade deficits (TD has one here) but the reality is that it is insanity to expect a country of 40M people to buy as much as country of 350M. We buy a metric fuckton of US goods for such a small country. In fact, if you took the US’s addiction to oil out of the equation (which we sell at a 20% discount – now 10% with the tariffs) they actually have a trade surplus. … But we don’t have to buy only from the US and quite frankly maybe we shouldn’t.
Look, I don’t want it to go down like this but I think if we learned any lesson from the past 9 years is that being diplomatic doesn’t get you far. This whole, “when they go low, we go high” bullshit hasn’t worked in elections and it certainly was a rude awakening on Jan 6, 2020 (pardoning people who also had these charges would be political death in the beforetimes). Never in the history of the world has giving a bully your lunch money stopped him from beating you up again the next day.
“War is no time for soft Cheesies!
Gather ‘round my children, for I am from the 80s and I will treat you to a glimpse at life before NAFTA, the internet, and TEMU/Shein. Indeed, there was a time when we did not get everything we wanted for $1 at the Dollarama (I kid, that stuff is at least $2.50 now).
When I was a child, my mother once splurged on strawberries in January. When my grandmother found out, she was horrified. “Es-tu riche?” she chided my mother. You see, before free trade we just didn’t eat berries in winter. They are difficult to grow and transport and because of the high cost, people just went without until strawberry season in June. I certainly didn’t even eat an avocado until I went out for “fancy” dinner at a Tex-Mex place when I was about 10.
Most food we ate in winter was either brassicas, potatoes, carrots or canned fruits and vegetables. We got clementines at Christmas and some of my fondest childhood memories are of gorging myself on them while watching Saturday morning cartoons. If you wanted corn on the cob, cucumbers and lettuce well, those were summer vegetables. While I wouldn’t say we ate 100% with the seasons, we ate way more seasonally than we do now. Otherwise, it was food from the cold storage (apples, potatoes), canned (pineapple/peas) and frozen (OJ/corn). By the end of the sweet corn season in September you were so sick of it you basically were done for a long, long time.
“GASP!” you say. “I could never! I need the horking avocado chunk goji berry with almond milk smoothie bowl for breakfast! You are bringing us back to the dark ages!”
NAH, I am really not. What I am saying is that if you want to eat in a certain way, you are going to have to pay for it. Tariffs will just bring that expense more in line with the actual cost of things. It just costs more to bring food from other places and the bigger or more delicate or prone to spoiling it is, the more it will be. Heck, even if you want fresh juice verses canned concentrate that’s going to be a premium.
It’s not just food though: our houses were smaller, we didn’t own as much clothing, we rarely ate out and kids owned a lot fewer toys. You’re cold? Throw on a sweater! I can remember only a couple of kids who went to Disney in elementary school and one person who took a trip to Greece. Middle class families just didn’t spend March break traveling to resorts like many people do today because things were so much more expensive. When I was in elementary school, almost everyone had sticker books and traded stickers. Stickers were $5 a pack in the early 80s – not adjusted for inflation! They were super expensive! Now I can get thousands of stickers for the same price online. We got maybe a few clothing items at the beginning of the school year and those clothes had to last the entire year. But it lasted – and many a parent spent their evenings sewing patches on our knees. I suspect you also are familiar with Shein clothing hauls where you can buy tissue-paper thin – but fashionable – items for less than a Starbucks coffee. If it rips? Well, you can just toss it out! We are gorging ourselves on goods that are financially cheap and widely available but at a huge cost to the environment, human rights and our own sanity as we try and store and keep up with trends.
Life has been overrun with excess and Canada’s food waste alone is 50 TONS. Yes, we have municipal composting but I think this speaks to a larger issue: if you can access cheap food and cheap clothes and cheap EVERYTHING really, you have no respect for it. If gas is cheap, you drive everywhere. If toys are cheap, why not surprise junior with more consumer goods? [4] When I had a sticker book as a kid and I went to trade a scratch-n-sniff sticker for a puffy sticker, you bet your ass we peeled those bad boys off with the precision skill of a neurosurgeon! At $5 for 10-12, we were not gonna rip them because no one was going to buy us more at that price!
Appreciating what you have is very difficult to achieve because once you feel entitled to a certain lifestyle, anything less is seen as a hardship. We want more. Although I do wear sweaters in the house, I also have no qualms about raising the heat if I am cold. My grandmother would NEVER! She went through two wars, a depression, the cold war, the oil crisis and huge inflation of the 70s and 80s. Add to this the constant swiping on social media, the relentless advertising and how our friends and neighbours are doing streamed right to our faceholes constantly, we often can feel as if we are behind, not as successful. That leaves us susceptible to grifters and politicians (sometimes they are both) who still use the old lines of making life better when life is already pretty perfect. There is a great scene in the 2018 Dracula that really resonated with me. It’s set when he awakens in present day in a dirty, old house that is clearly not taken care of:
Dracula: Kathleen, isn’t it?
Kathleen: yeah
Dracula: What’s wrong with your servants, Kathleen? Is it their day off? I’m assuming you have staff, you’re clearly very wealthy.
Kathleen: Wealthy?
Dracula: Yes. Well, look at all this stuff. All this food. The moving picture box…and that thing outside, Bob calls it um, a car. Is that yours?
Kathleen: yes
Dracula: …and this treasure trove is your house?
Kathleen: it’s a dump.
Dracula: It’s amazing! Kathleen, I’ve been a nobleman for 400 years. I’ve lived in castles and palaces among the richest people of any age. Never, never have I stood in greater luxury than surrounds me now. This is a chamber of marvels! There isn’t a king, or queen or emperor that I have ever known – or eaten – who would step into this room and ever agree to leave it again…I knew the future would bring wonders. I did not know it would make them ordinary.
I don’t want to say that there aren’t problems to solve. There are always plenty of problems to solve and modern life makes new and exciting problems to tackle as well. But there are two ways to solve the problem of habituation and unappreciation: you either increase or decrease. Increasing a standard of living means there is no end to what you want. No finish line. But conversely, you can only decrease so far. Similarly, decreasing something through sheer will is really difficult because everyone around you is still living status quo. Of course, if you are forced, you can eventually adjust. A trade war forces your hand pretty damn quickly, it would appear. It forces it for you, it forces it for your family and friends and if you are banded together against a foe – well – all the better to fuel the fire!
Nothing brings a country together like someone threatening to take you over. As Canada (like the rest of the world) has become more polarized, it was heartening that it only took a few nasty comments to get us all pulling together. r/BuyCanadian and other subs were absolutely hopping last week with a determination to focus financial support for Canadian companies and divest from US ones as much as possible. Nothing brings two side together like a common foe. The debate on the feasibility of the impact of that effort rages on, but at a core level, I think in times of high anxiety it’s important to feel like you CAN do your part. This is where the value lies. If you feel like you are doing your part then you aren’t just sitting around stressing about things you are powerless about.
Of course, the tariffs got a 30 day stay but what is done is done: Canadians are still super angry and feel that they can’t trust the US. I am sure many businesses in North America are scrambling to find other suppliers and exporters who may not be covered under the tariff scheme[5]. Everything seems really chaotic and dark right now but if anything, I try and stay positive and I have tons of experience with putting on a brave face. So here are some positives that may come to pass if tariffs kick in again:
We will survive Canada and the US have a lengthy history of tariffs but it would not decimate our economy. Would our standard of living go down? Absolutely. But for the average Canadian, it would make us reckon with our values. Our core goal should be for those of us who are affected the least to help the most vulnerable among us who will be affected the most.
More trading partners: I agree that Mexico/US/Canada have become too complacent in our cozy friendship. I mean, most countries do most of their trading with their neighbours because it keeps costs down. But diversification is key to a strong portfolio and it’s key here. We should never make ourselves reliant on one or two countries for our imports. That’s the lesson here.
Less waste: if you pay $2 for a clamshell of blueberries you probably don’t care if they go mouldy because, heck, it was only a toonie. But if it goes up to $5 you will care about eating it before it goes to waste. When I was young and poor AF, I ate my pantry bare every month. This is because I couldn’t just run out and nab more food because the money was gone too.
More repairing & DIY: prices are going to get higher so I am hoping that this BUY CANADIAN movement also involves thrifting more stuff given we have enough clothes right now for 100 years, making do by repairing things instead of replacing things, and for the things we would have typically bought, trying DIY. In fact, Mr. Tucker is learning to make soap this weekend (which is unrelated except to say that he can’t find the kind of soap he likes). Even if we can get cheap clothes from China, there is already a list circulating for Canadian/non-US options. It will cost more but I hope people will switch back to owning classic, well made pieces that can be repaired and still look great. For example, I was looking for wool socks last year and checked all of the usual places. I ended up buying a mediocre pair from Mark’s Work Warehouse (a Canadian company) but only discovered recently the existence of Purple Moose which sells two pairs for $22.
I still get irrationally angry everytime I see this tweet
Learning new skills: there are a lot of reasons to hate Uber but let’s face it: we have become addicted to the ease of ride hailing and food delivery. I haven’t used it myself since a ridiculous experience in Oakland (jfc, they couldn’t even get OAKLAND right!) but I know a lot of people are addicted to delivery. It’s a good time to learn how to make a few core dishes that you can throw together quickly, or get together with friends to make meals to freeze. If you are disabled or elderly, most urban areas have Meals on Wheels and more expensive options that are local. On top of that, it’s important to know a few basic skills such as sewing a button and hemming pants.
Less junk: a lot of the food we import is either SUPER HEALTHY (veggies and fruits) or SUPER AWFUL (pop and junk food). Sure, crap is easier to cut out because you don’t need it and you can replace a lot of it. Every year my CSA offers an add-on fruit for jam makers and folks who freeze fruit for winter. I suspect if the momentum lasts there may be folks freezing, buying from other countries, or choosing greenhouse produce (if you are as rich as Mr. Moneybags, I guess).
Keeping more money in the community: I am seeing a lot of hand-wringing about people wondering what will happen to the workers if we boycotted a chain and that location went under. If everyone still drinks the same amount of coffee, the workers can move to a bustling local business AND keep more money in your community. Money you pay for a chain – yes, even Tim Horton’s was sold to a US/Brazilian company – leaves your community and country.
Less reliance on cars: the one thing that will explode in price will be automobiles made with just-in-time components that travel through Mexico/US/Canada through a variety of processes. Those jobs tend to be union jobs and well paid ones & tariffs will affect that industry immensely. Maybe this would force the government to invest in better public transportation and speed trains would be back on the menu?
But also maybe the price of cars and gas will decline but we can get reasonably priced Chinese EVs which could a> soak up factory workers here for finishing within the country, b> make use of all of the mining and electricity that we are currently exporting. If I had a stretch dream in this particular scenario, it would be that smaller cars would come to be seen as a flex, and large gas guzzlers would come to represent a certain gaucheness of a world gone by.
I would be stupid to say that there aren’t downsides. It’s going to be a very rough few years even if it ends up only being tariffs. But it’s not UNSURMOUNTABLE if it is only tariffs.
I would like to point out that no one should feel badly for not being able to spend more money on inexpensive goods/services. In fact, if you are vulnerable, you should probably stock up on as many sales of products other people aren’t buying right now. Live as lean as you can so you have as much of a buffer as you can if (when) things get rocky. Put your own oxygen mask on first.
If you are a person who has some extra cash, please consider sending it to charities in your community. We’ve doubled our food bank donation this year because they are in crisis with many only being able to give 2-3 days of food a month per family. In times of crisis, shelters see an increase in need. Donate money if you can, time if you cannot. Heck, just go out and meet your neighbours and see if they need something if your heading out to the store.
Finally, let me put on my tin foil hat on for a second and say this: Ontarians in Canada have two elections this year. All of the large social media platforms, search engines, and many US news agencies are owned by billionaires you cannot trust. These algorithms will only let you see what they want you to see, searches may be throttled by their politics, opinion pieces bought and sold and many comments everywhere could be bad actors. When making political decisions go right to the source: the candidate & party websites. Seek out independent media and media not owned by people with a history of shady behaviour. Everything feels like a scam right now because everything is a scam.
I am no protectionist. I spend a lot of time in the US and the people I speak to the most (outside of my family) are The Americans[6] (as I’ve lovingly referred to them here before). I am scared for them and the instability of their country. I am scared for people in the US who are losing their jobs, who aren’t getting paid and who are staring down high prices for no reason. I’m scared for people who don’t fit the current administration’s mould who have ‘go bags’ with their passports and money because everything is so chaotic right now. I have a lot more in common with my American friends than I have with many Canadians. I don’t optimize for nationality in my friendships. I optimize for humour, intelligence, and kindness (extra points if you have niche hobbies!).
Alas, I have no pro tips for the world’s move towards fascism.
[1] I started writing this last Friday.
[2] SHOCKED PIKACHU: he did. Canada retaliated. Monday they agreed to a 30 day stay…in return for what we promised to do in January. Make it make sense.
[3] I guess we will see if Canada gets invaded like he threatens, then NATO retaliates. Then Russia and China take advantage of the global north’s weakened position to invade NA via the west and the arctic…*thinks happy thoughts*
[4] Yes, you can absolutely go against the grain and chose to buy more expensive, quality things. But when you live in a culture that expects 10 costume changes a day, it’s challenging to not fit in with what everyone else is doing. When my kids were younger I tried to buy fewer toys but paid more for them. I had a local woodworker make a cute truck for crayons, I bought wood puzzles and LEGO. But this all unraveled the moment when my kids started going to birthday parties. When you can wow a kid with a $20 plastic Walmart toy, it’s disheartening when you spend 3x as much on something well crafted that the kid ignores. I just gave in and started buying the less expensive plastic toy so that my kids could experience the joy of giving their friends gifts they liked. I will admit that most of that was on me and my feelings but it’s difficult to choose a different path when this is culturally ingrained. As for myself, I started asking that people NOT bring gifts to my children’s parties and all of the loot bags I started giving were gift cards to a bookstore.
But the problem with trying to live even a wee bit outside of the norm is that you make it so much more difficult for yourself. If you have kids it is even more challenging because dragging them in seems almost unfair. So you compromise.
[5] If Trump really cared about protectionism he would have quietly invested in companies to replace the largest imports before releasing the tariffs. Otherwise, it just appears to be a social media ploy to get likes.
[6] These are my Americans, get your own.
